THE PENNSYLVANIA JOKER - AT 7:21 A.M. ET:  The changing poll numbers around the country over the past month or two have been quite dramatic.  Consider Pennsylvania.  A new Quinnipiac poll tests the fate of former pseudo-Republican and now kind-of-Democratic Senator Arlen Specter.  The great switcher isn't faring well:

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 - 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection.

President Barack Obama gets a 56 - 37 percent job approval, compared to 62 - 31 percent in a May 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. By a bare 50 - 43 percent majority, voters approve of the President's handling of the economy.

Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side Toomey buries Peg Luksik 47 - 6 percent.

On May 4, Specter led Toomey 53 - 33 percent in a trial heat; his favorable unfavorable ratio among Pennsylvania voters was 52 - 34 percent and voters said 49 - 41 percent he deserved reelection. In a May 28 Quinnipiac University poll, Specter led Toomey 46 - 37 percent.

COMMENT:  We should savor the moment.  Three months ago a number of major pundits were pronouncing the death, or at least terminal illness, of the Republican Party and conservatism in general. 

But a cautionary note:  Things can switch back.  Don't underestimate the Obama-university-media axis.  Hillary Clinton made that mistake in the Dem primaries last year.  And any improvement in the economy can boost the Dems, even if they have nothing to do with it.

Tough fight next year, but winnable.  The 2010 midterms are a bit more than 15 months away.

July 23, 2009